In the wake of the 2024 presidential election, various exit polls have shown that over 65% of Indigenous voters cast their ballot for Trump. Many Democratic analysts have begun to question what caused Native voters’ rightward lurch. Although the validity and rigor of several exit polls have been called into question, they still reflect developing political trends. 

A combination of rising inflation, diminishing job prospects, and political disillusionment with the Democratic party establishment have increased the GOP’s indigenous support. Notably, Democrats have primarily concentrated their campaign efforts on urban areas, while leaving many underdeveloped rural communities behind. In her presidential campaign trail, Vice President Kamala Harris failed to visit a single reservation. By contrast, the Republican Party concentrated vital resources on Native American tribes in Arizona and New Mexico. Typically, Native American tribes do not fall across strict party lines—instead, their support vacillates to the party that most directly addresses their needs. Their recent rightward shift is especially surprising considering that they have traditionally supported Democratic candidates over Republican ones with appreciable margins.

However, the next Trump presidency has the potential to jeopardize Tribal sovereignty. Both President Trump’s statements and his tacit support of Project 2025, a recent GOP-backed plan to overhaul the executive branch, have advocated mining interests on federally-protected land. Arizona’s Halapuai Reservation contains abundant lithium deposits; that would enable federally-sponsored mining initiatives to unilaterally expropriate Native land with only nominal compensation to tribal leaders. Unfortunately, these mining operations have ecologically catastrophic consequences. Oftentimes, they reservations’ groundwater with highly-toxic industrial runoff; others, they expose nearby towns to toxic fumes and chemicals. These disastrous effects spike infant mortality rates, raise cancer risk, and lower life expectancy in the aggregate. Even if mining operations do not directly jeopardize their health, they imperil the already tenuous Tribal-Federal relationships which are already suffering from neglect. But the Halapuai peoples are not the only ones endangered by mining expansion on Tribal lands—across the country, thousands of others share their story. According to a study conducted by Dr. Deanna Kemp at the University of Queensland, over 54% of minerals needed for the transition to renewable energy are located on or in proximity to reservations. Yet, instead of engaging in meaningful collaboration with Indigenous people, Trump threatens to usurp Federal authority to bypass their agency. He will leverage the tactics he employed in his first administration in 2017, when he advocated for the continued development of the Keystone XL natural gas pipeline that crossed several reservations. 

Likewise, Trump’s impending elimination of the Department of Education will jeopardize the Head Start program, a childhood development initiative that assists over 28,000 indigenous children annually. Considering that most reservations find themselves a considerable distance from state-funded public schools, the Head Start program provides critical educational support. 

Although the last four years under the Biden administration have been characterized by expanded social programs and restricted mining rights, the shifting political winds in 2024 and beyond threaten to reconfigure Indigenous sovereignty for the worse.